Thursday, April 1, 2010

The Collapse of Complex Business Models

"In such systems, there is no way to make things a little bit simpler – the whole edifice becomes a huge, interlocking system not readily amenable to change. Tainter doesn’t regard the sudden decoherence of these societies as either a tragedy or a mistake—”[U]nder a situation of declining marginal returns collapse may be the most appropriate response”, to use his pitiless phrase. Furthermore, even when moderate adjustments could be made, they tend to be resisted, because any simplification discomfits elites.

When the value of complexity turns negative, a society plagued by an inability to react remains as complex as ever, right up to the moment where it becomes suddenly and dramatically simpler, which is to say right up to the moment of collapse. Collapse is simply the last remaining method of simplification."

Clay Shirky puts the needle right on it. Backs up the notion of let them fail fast as applied to telcos and financial institutions.

in reference to:

"When, they asked, would online video generate enough money to cover their current costs?"
- The Collapse of Complex Business Models « Clay Shirky (view on Google Sidewiki)

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